Set the World on Fire

An NDP candidate in Toronto, Linda McQuaig, has said that in order to meet climate targets some of Alberta's oil will have to go undeveloped. This is, well, pretty obvious. In order to meet a maximum 2 degree rise in global temperatures, the majority of recoverable fossil fuel reserves will have to stay in the ground. Inevitably that total will include some Canadian oil, perhaps the majority.

The same is true for even specific local goals, like limiting Canada's carbon emissions. All parties have a commitment to limit emissions… even the Conservatives, though their pledge won’t take effect for another 35 years.

The trouble is that most politicians have been trying desperately to avoid acknowledging this. NDP leaders like Tom Mulcair and Alberta's Rachel Notley have avoided the issue, preferring “sustainable development”. Green leader Elizabeth May is opposed to pipelines, but if she’s trying to shut down the oilsands entirely I can’t find any mention of it.

It's understandable that this would be a difficult issue... that oil represents a significant fraction of Alberta's wealth, and at least a few percent of Canada's wealth. Giving it up - or giving up that potential - is going to be deeply unpopular. Politicians who are trying to win elections have a vested interest in avoiding such subjects until later. But anyone planning to leave the difficult questions until after their last campaign is in trouble, because they don’t know it’s their last campaign until they’ve already lost.

Kudos to McQuaig for saying the obvious. Hopefully more politicians join her before we all burn.